Bharat Jodo Vs BJP Jodo: The number game ahead of 2024

That the Bharat Jodo Yatra is doing well is now an established fact beyond doubt. Even the ardent supporters of the Yatra such as Yogendra Yadav are not talking about the Congress staging a comeback after a ten-year Rip Van Winkle-type hibernation. Nor is there anyone within the Congress who could be day-dreaming about capturing power.

As we have been discussing in these columns, the BJP has always been poll ready, much as the army remaining battle-ready any time. Every event is an election rally for them and they hardly need election meetings. But then, MoSha (Modi-Shah) combine will never allow complacency to set in.

But has Rahul Gandhi's march rattled the BJP? Definitely yes, in the process one development that has gone unnoticed is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stopped referring to Yuva Raj of Congress directly or indirectly. He has left it to the ranks and files of Bhakts to keep attacking Rahul and make fun of him.

The BJP top brass is in a consolidation mode for sure. They cleverly did their division of labour. While Modi himself does the strategic road map laying job for others down the line to follow, Amit Shah takes the national security route. FM Nirmala Sitharaman is assigned to do her job, pan-India, while Piyush Goyal is in touch with the business community – small to the largest. The rest of the Cabinet is also supposed to spread the message of good governance through their respective ministries. In these days of social media, global presence is essential not from the point of view of maintaining presence, but influencing the minds. Who knows this better than the BJP? So, they have External Affairs Minister S Jayashankar influencing Indians abroad while dealing with the foreign governments.

Haven't we suggested a shadow cabinet for the Congress or even the united opposition? Had that been in place, it would have helped them keep tabs on the government at various levels and counter the official claims. Whatever the government says or claims today goes unopposed or un-countered. With most of the media remaining in self-censorship mode, nothing much is known about the facts behind the figures. Take the case of the oxygen plants approved by the government during the Covid and the number of these units which actually came up. I could not get much information even through my RTI application except that the query has been passed from one department to another including the heavy industries department. No, it's not a joke. Then you consider the example of the statements by the PM that the government is giving free rations to 80 crore people since the outbreak of Covid. This means even today close to 60 per cent of the people cannot afford to buy rations! That's huge considering that one gets to read the World Bank data which says India's poverty level is just about 10 per cent (14 crore?). So, has Covid thrown 70 crore people into poverty? What happened to all the welfare schemes that the various governments launched? We have been reading about record crops. Aren't we employing farm labour? The construction and real estate – the next largest employers – are said to be bouncing back. In fact, the expenditure on infrastructure has been on a stupendous rise and realtors have been reporting record sales and new project launches. Are they not employing enough people to pull them out of poverty?

Since no questions are asked, let us not expect any answers from the government. Yes, the nation does not want to know anything!

The economy is on a roller-coaster and many believe that the small businesses have not been able to recover after the demonetisation shocker and the lockdown crisis. Neither the prices nor the job scenario are exactly encouraging.

In spite of all such negativities, the BJP is on a high curve of performance poll after poll. And they will continue to be in the majority of the States.

The reason is very simple. The top leadership keeps its grassroot contact intact. Apart from holding public rallies at the slightest opportunity, they hold rallies and melas. Now the Prime Minister hit upon a novel idea of making it public with each and every policy or welfare measure. Be it the Agniveer scheme or issuing appointment letters even for clerical jobs for that matter the launch of Vande Bharat train series, Modi has started holding video conferencing that is telecast live by many channels. These are in addition to his month-end Mann Ki Baat series over All India Radio which are also telecast and widely covered.

Psephologists and political analysts may talk of percentage of voting, caste analysis, secular politics, anti-incumbency and what not. But I am looking at the poll prospects from an altogether different prism – the actual numbers that matter. BJP, being the world's largest party, has some 18 crore members enrolled. And, we have 91 crore voters. Now comes the magic. If each BJP member ensures two votes for the party, apart from his or her own, they get a massive 54 crore votes. Considering the voter turnout of even 60 per cent at the higher side, BJP gets 54 crore votes. That's it. You don't have to look at anything else to visualise this clean sweep.

BJP knows it is winning. But the leadership always keeps its well-oiled machinery battle ready with continuous exercises and social media storms. You have the pro-BJP media to keep fuelling this flame.

Now there can be obvious questions: how long will this drill continue? Will no frustration set in if the performance does not match the promise? Or will people not realise the hollowness of the big talk?

Well, Modi is intelligent enough to ensure that the projects initiated are completed. The road projects in particular are toll-based and the government gets its money to pay back international loans. The viability of these projects of course depends on the extent to which they are used. For instance, Mumbai-Nagpur expressway or Mumbai-Delhi corridor may not be as instant hit as the Mumbai-Pune or Hyderabad-Vijayawada expressways. The traffic also depends on overall economic progress and affordability. All these questions will arise as time passes. But for now, and 2024, BJP is firmly in the saddle.

It is too early to say if Bharat Jodo will make any major impact on the political scenario over the next 400 days. There isn't enough time to resolve the non-BJP parties' contradictions. Voters will see through the marriage of convenience even the parties manage to come together under the Congress umbrella. Even if the culmination of Bharat Jodo is going to be dramatic, the squabbles within the Congress and the so-called opposition unity will eclipse the impact of Rahul Gandhi's march.

(The author is a Mumbai-based media veteran, known for his thought-provoking messaging).